Abstract
Prunus tomentosa (Thunb.) Wall has high nutritional value and medicinal effects. It is widespread in China; however, most plants growing in the wild are near extinction in many places. Predicting the potential distribution of P. tomentosa under climate change is helpful for cultivating and protecting wild germplasm resources. We used two general circulation models (CCSM4 and MIROC-ESM) and two future climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) to predict P. tomentosa’s present and future geographical distribution. A total of 137 distribution data points and 19 bioclimatic variables were imported into the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt). The optimal parameter combination (feature class LQHPT, regularized multiplier 3.0) was selected with corrected Akaike Information Criterion as the index. The results showed that at present and in the future, P. tomentosa was distributed across the northern provinces, with Gansu, Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Henan being the most suitable regions. Compared with the current climatic conditions, the potential growing area of P. tomentosa will move north, and the growing area will increase, especially in Xinjiang, where the low-impact zone area decreases. Temperature and humidity were the main variables affecting the potential distribution of the plant, including the average temperature in the coldest season (Bio11) and precipitation in the warmest season (Bio18).
Highlights
IntroductionThe tree is long-lived and has strong drought tolerance and adaptability [1]
The complexity of the MaxEnt model was reduced by adjusting the regularization multiplier and feature type to accurately predict the potential geographic distribution of P. tomentosa
This study selected the appropriate feature class (LQHPT) and the regularization multiplier (3.0) to optimize the model and explored the main factors limiting the ecological distribution of P. tomentosa ecological distribution in 19 bioclimatic variables for Bio11, Bio18, Bio19, Bio5, and Bio15
Summary
The tree is long-lived and has strong drought tolerance and adaptability [1]. It has good soil and water conservation function and high economic value [2]. There is little large-scale artificial cultivation of P. tomentosa in China, and most individuals of the species are in the wild. He et al [3] have found that wild P. tomentosa are on the verge of extinction in many places. The research on P. tomentosa is mainly focused on the analysis of fruit nutrition and composition, breeding, storage, and processing [4]. It is essential to understand the geographical distribution of cherry in
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