Prediction of Potential Geothermal Disaster Areas along the Yunnan–Tibet Railway Project

Abstract

As China’s railways continue to expand into the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, the number of deep-buried long tunnels is increasing. Tunnel-damaging geothermal disasters have become a common problem in underground engineering. Predicting the potential geothermal disaster areas along the Yunnan–Tibet railway project is conducive to its planning and construction and the realization of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)—specifically, the industry, innovation and infrastructure goal (SDG 9). In this paper, the Yunnan–Tibet railway project was the study area. Landsat-8 images and other spatial data were used to investigate causes and distributions of geothermal disasters. A collinearity diagnosis of environmental variables was carried out. Twelve environmental variables, such as land surface temperature, were selected to predict potential geothermal disaster areas using four niche models (MaxEnt, Bioclim, Domain and GARP). The prediction results were divided into four levels and had different characteristics. Among them, the area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and kappa values of the MaxEnt model were the highest, at 0.84 and 0.63, respectively. Its prediction accuracy was the highest and the algorithm results are more suitable for the prediction of geothermal disasters. The prediction results show that the geothermal disaster potential is greatest in the Markam-Deqen, Zuogong-Zayu and Baxoi-Zayu regions. Through jack-knife analysis, it was found that the land surface temperature, active faults, water system distribution and Moho depth are the key environmental predictors of potential geothermal disaster areas. The research results provide a reference for the design and construction of the Yunnan–Tibet railway project and associated sustainable development.