Prediction of potential economic impact of Bactrocera zonata (Diptera: Tephritidae) in China: Peaches as the example hosts

Abstract

• Bactrocera zonata is among the most destructive fruit fly species throughout the world. • @RISK and Monte Carlo simulation model were used to predict economic losses. • Under nil management, B. zonata would cause 0.82–3.07 billion dollars in China. The peach fruit fly (PFF), Bactrocera zonata (Diptera: Tephritidae), is among the most destructive Bactrocera fruit fly species in Asia and Africa. The peach fruit fly is currently absent from China but has high risk of invasion to China. This study primarily quantifies the direct potential economic impact of B. zonata in China using Monte Carlo simulation model, taking peaches as the example hosts. The results showed that under nil management scenario, the potential economic loss in China caused by B. zonata would be 0.82–3.07 billion dollars (90% confidence level), and potential savings after management will be 0.20–1.00 billion dollars (90% confidence level). Quarantine measures against B. zonata and field control should be strengthened to prevent its introduction and reduce the potential economic impact in China.