Prediction of Postoperative Ambulatory Status 1 Year After Hip Fracture Surgery

Abstract

Hirose J, Ide J, Yakushiji T, Abe Y, Nishida K, Maeda S, Anraku Y, Usuku K, Mizuta H. Prediction of postoperative ambulatory status 1 year after hip fracture surgery. Objectives To assess the validity of Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress (E-PASS) for predicting the postoperative risk and ambulatory status long-term follow-up after hip fracture surgery and to establish an algorithm for predicting their ambulatory status. Design Cohort study. Setting Twelve hospitals belonging to the regional network for hip fracture in Japan. Participants The study population was composed of 421 patients; 268 underwent surgery between April 2004 and March 2006 (group A), and 153 were treated surgically between April 2006 and March 2007 (group B). All were operated at 3 surgical hospitals and, subsequently, transferred to 9 rehabilitation centers. Interventions Not applicable. Main Outcome Measures We evaluated various factors, including their E-PASS scores to determine whether there was a correlation with the patients' mortality rate and their ability to walk at discharge and 1 year after surgery (group A). Using multiple regression analysis, we then developed algorithms to predict the ability of elderly patients to walk after hip fracture surgery. We applied the algorithms to group B patients and compared their actual and predicted ambulatory status. Results In group A patients, the postoperative walking ability and mortality rate were highly correlated with their E-PASS scores and dementia status. In group B, our algorithms exhibited good correlations between the predicted and actual walking ability at both time points (ρ=0.6, P<.001). Conclusions In candidates for hip fracture surgery, the E-PASS scores exhibited a good correlation with the patients' functional and survival prognoses, and the algorithm including E-PASS scores and dementia status can accurately estimate the ambulatory status at discharge and 1 year after surgery.