Prediction of PM<inf>10</inf> concentrations using Fuzzy c-Means and ANN

Abstract

Salamanca has been considered among the most polluted cities in Mexico. The vehicular park, the industry and the emissions produced by agriculture, as well as orography and climatic characteristics have propitiated the increment in pollutant concentration of Particulate Matter less than 10 μg/m <sup xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">3</sup> in diameter (PM <sub xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">10</sub> ). In this work, a Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network has been used to make the prediction of an hour ahead of pollutant concentration. A database used to train the Neural Network corresponds to historical time series of meteorological variables (wind speed, wind direction, temperature and relative humidity) and air pollutant concentrations of PM <sub xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">10</sub> . Before the prediction, Fuzzy c-Means clustering algorithm have been implemented in order to find relationship among pollutant and meteorological variables. These relationship help us to get additional information that will be used for predicting. Our experiments with the proposed system show the importance of this set of meteorological variables on the prediction of PM <sub xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">10</sub> pollutant concentrations and the neural network efficiency. The performance estimation is determined using the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). The results shown that the information obtained in the clustering step allows a prediction of an hour ahead, with data from past 2 hours.