Prediction of PM2.5 using an ensemble of artificial neural networks and regression models

Abstract

Inhaling particulate matter such as PM2.5 can have a hazardous impact on the human health. In order to predict the PM2.5 concentration, Artificial Neural Networks trained with conjugate gradient descent such as Multi Layer Perceptron (MLP), cascade forward neural network, Elman neural network, Radial Basis Function (RBF) neural network and Non-linear Autoregressive model with exogenous input (NARX) along with regression models such as Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) consisting of batch gradient descent, stochastic gradient descent, mini-batch gradient descent and conjugate gradient descent algorithms and Support Vector Regression (SVR) were implemented. In these models, the concentration of PM2.5 was the dependent variable and the data related to concentrations of PM2.5, SO2, O3 and meteorological data including average Maximum Temperature (MAX T), daily wind speed (WS) for the years 2010–2016 in Houston and New York were the independent variables. For the final forecast, several ensemble models of individual neural network predictors and individual regression predictors have been presented.