Prediction of persistent clinically important back pain among older adults beginning a new episode of care for back pain

Abstract

Despite the high prevalence of back pain among older adults, little is known concerning prognosis in this population. The objectives of this large, longitudinal observational study were to describe back pain outcomes over time and to develop a model for predicting outcomes among older patients initiating a new episode of care for back pain. We hypothesized that greater back pain duration, back pain intensity, leg pain intensity, physical disability (Roland score), pain interference (Brief Pain Inventory), depression (PHQ-2), and anxiety (GAD-2), and lower recovery expectations, at baseline would be risk factors for moderate to severe back pain intensity (5-10 on 0-10 scale of average back pain in the past week) 6 months later.