Prediction of peaks in wolf numbers in cycle 24 according to actual numbers of polar faculae

Abstract

Previous investigations by Makarov et al. have shown a relation between the peaks in the number of polar faculae and the peaks in the Wolf number. In cycles 20 and 22 the delay between peaks in polar faculae and Wolf number was 6.1 ± 0.1 year, north and south taken separately, as their peaks do not coincide. For the odd cycle 21, this shift was 5.6 years average. Polar faculae always precede the sunspots. The relevance of this for the dynamo mechanism is obvious. In cycle 23 the delay was 7.7 year (north) and 7.8 year (south). The approach of a deep minimum is probably responsible for this increased delay; thus for cycle 24 the delay between peaks of polar faculae and sunspots is expected to be at least 7.8 years and probably longer. The present polar faculae show 6 peaks above the smoothed average (north) and similarly 3 peaks south. The first peak for the sunspots will be at the earliest during the very end of 2007. As soon as one peak in the spots occurs the delay for cycle 24 can be estimated and the other peaks predicted.