Prediction of particle pollution through spatio-temporal multivariate geostatistical analysis: spatial special issue

Abstract

Vehicular traffic, industrial activity and street dust are important sources of atmospheric particles, which cause pollution and serious health problems, including respiratory illness. Hence, techniques for analyzing and modeling the spatio-temporal behavior of particulate matter (PM), in the recent statistical literature, represent an essential support for environmental and human health protection. In this paper, air pollution from particles with diameters smaller than 10 \({\rm \mu}\)m and related meteorological variables, such as temperature and wind speed, measured during November 2009 in the south of Apulian region (Lecce, Brindisi, and Taranto districts) are studied. A thorough multivariate geostatistical analysis is proposed, where different tools for testing the symmetry assumption of the spatio-temporal linear coregionalization model (ST-LCM) are considered, as well as a recent fitting procedure of the ST-LCM, based on the simultaneous diagonalization of symmetric real-valued matrix variograms, is adopted and two non-separable classes of variogram models, the product–sum and Gneiting classes, are fitted to the basic components. The most significant aspects of this study are (a) the quantitative assessment of the assumption of symmetry of the ST-LCM, (b) the use of different non-separable spatio-temporal models for fitting the basic components of a ST-LCM and, more importantly, (c) the application of the spatio-temporal multivariate geostatistical analysis to predict particle pollution in one of the most polluted geographical area. Prediction maps for particle pollution levels with the corresponding validation results are given.