Prediction of palm oil production in Riau Province using the single exponential smoothing method

Abstract

Riau Province is one of the provinces in Sumatra with the most oil palm plantations. Riau Province was once recognized as Indonesia’s greatest oil-producing province, but with the fall in output owing to decreasing oil reserves, Riau has become a greater palm oil producer. Not unexpectedly, palm oil has surpassed petroleum in terms of foreign exchange in Indonesia since 2010. There are numerous stages in this research, namely problem analysis, data collection, data preprocessing, single exponential smoothing prediction, data modeling, and calculation precision. Based on the findings of the testing, the Single Exponential Smoothing technique with alpha 0.9 may be used to forecast the requirement for prior time series data in the future, particularly in the case of oil palm output in Riau Province. Oil palm production is expected to grow somewhat over the next five years, according to the forecast.