Prediction of overall survival in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma treated with Y-90 radioembolization by imaging response criteria

Abstract

PurposeTo evaluate the potential of imaging criteria in predicting overall survival of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after a first transcatheter arterial yttrium-90 radioembolization (TARE) Materials and methodsFrom October 2013 to July 2017, 37 patients with HCC were retrospectively included. There were 34 men and 3 women with a mean age of 60.5±10.2 (SD) years (range: 32.7–78.9 years). Twenty-five patients (68%) were Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) C and 12 (32%) were BCLC B. Twenty-four primary index tumors (65%) were>5cm. Three radiologists evaluated tumor response on pre- and 4–7 months post-TARE magnetic resonance imaging or computed tomography examinations, using Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST) 1.1, modified RECIST (mRECIST), European Association for Study of the Liver (EASL), volumetric RECIST (vRECIST), quantitative EASL (qEASL) and the Liver Imaging Reporting and Data System treatment response algorithm. Kaplan–Meier survival curves were used to compare responders and non-responders for each criterion. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazard ratio (HR) analysis were used to identify covariates associated with overall survival. Fleiss kappa test was used to assess interobserver agreement. ResultsAt multivariate analysis, RECIST 1.1 (HR: 0.26; 95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 0.09–0.75; P=0.01), mRECIST (HR: 0.22; 95% CI: 0.08–0.59; P=0.003), EASL (HR: 0.22; 95% CI: 0.07–0.63; P=0.005), and qEASL (HR: 0.30; 95% CI: 0.12–0.80; P=0.02) showed a significant difference in overall survival between responders and nonresponders. RECIST 1.1 had the highest interobserver reproducibility. ConclusionRECIST and mRECIST seem to be the best compromise between reproducibility and ability to predict overall survival in patients with HCC treated with TARE.