Prediction of outcomes after heart transplantation by machine learning models

Abstract

Abstract Background Models based on traditional statistics for the prediction of outcomes after heart transplantation (HT) have moderate accuracy. We sought to develop and validate state-of-the-art machine learning (ML) models to predict mortality and acute rejection after contemporary HT. Methods We included adult HT recipients from the UNOS database between 2010–2018 using solely pre-transplant clinical and laboratory variables. The study cohort was randomly split in a derivation and a validation cohort with a 3:1 ratio. An effective feature selection algorithm was used to identify strong predictors of 1-year mortality and rejection in the training cohort. Results were used to train the ML models, which were then internally tested using the validation cohort. LIME explainability analysis was used for the best performing ML model. A similar subgroup analysis was performed for 3- and 5-year survival. Results The study cohort comprised of 18,625 patients (53±13 years, 73% males). At 1-year after cardiac transplant, there were 2,334 (12.5%) deaths. Out of a total of 134 pre-transplant variables, 39 and 27 were selected as highly predictive of 1-year mortality and acute rejection respectively, and were used in the ML models. Areas under the curve for the prediction of 1-year survival were 0.689, 0.642, 0.649, 0.637, 0.526 for the Adaboost, Logistic Regression, Decision Tree, Support Vector Machine and K-nearest neighbor models respectively, whereas the IMPACT score had an AUC of 0.569. For the prediction of 1-year acute rejection, Adaboost achieved the highest predictive performance (AUC 0.629). LIME explainability analysis identified the relative impact of the 10 strongest predictors of 1-year mortality and acute rejection. Subgroup analysis using a similar methodology for 3- and 5-year survival yielded AUC of 0.609 and 0.610 using 31 and 91 selected variables respectively. Conclusion ML models created and validated using a contemporary cohort of the UNOS database showed improved accuracy in predicting survival and acute rejection after HT. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: None.