Prediction of officer retention prior to commissioning*

Abstract

Improved selection techniques may help the all‐volunteer Army to diminish a problem of retaining qualified personnel after their initial tour of duty. This report describes and validates the Military Career Commitment Gradient (MCCOG), an instrument designed to predict, prior to actual commissioning, whether an individual will remain on active duty after his initial tour. Shortly before commissioning, two consecutive classes of seniors at the US Military Academy were given the MCCOG. Their scores had adjusted correlations of 0.54 and 0.39 with the criterion—on active duty versus not on active duty—seven years later. Potential uses of the MCCOG are discussed.