Prediction of Offensive Possession Ends in Elite Basketball Teams.

Kęstutis Matulaitis,Tomas Bietkis

doi:10.3390/ijerph18031083

Kęstutis Matulaitis, Tomas Bietkis

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18031083

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Abstract

In basketball, the end of the ball possession has been described as one of the most important determinants of successful offensive play by a team. The present study aimed to: (i) investigate outcomes according to the play types of ends of the ball possession; (ii) find the most efficient ball possessions during the game; (iii) predict most efficient ends of the ball possession by time in an elite basketball competition. The sample was composed of 38,640 situations of ends of the ball possession from 240 games of the 2017–2018 regular season of the men’s Euroleague that were quantitatively analyzed. According to the results, the predictive model can be used in modern basketball. The most efficient ends of the ball possession are the 2-point field goals on the fast break (78.2%), cuts (64.8%), pick and roll (P&R) screener (61.5%), and transition and offensive rebound (57.4%) situations. This information allows a better collective understanding of basketball, and it could be a great tool to use for coaches to prove which tactical solutions are to be considered when improving offense and defense strategies. It also contributes to the design of precise practice tasks of the coach that improve the game.

Highlights

IntroductionNowadays coaches and basketball scientists search for the best way to predict the offensive plays of the opponent’s team for the upcoming game [1,2]
During all Euroleague regular-season games, the players end of the ball possessions were most often and most efficiently from 2-point field goals, plays
It was determined that different ends off ball possession that ended in a shot are related (χ2 = 1591.193; p < 0.001), and the effect size of these two attributes is of medium strength

Summary

Introduction

Nowadays coaches and basketball scientists search for the best way to predict the offensive plays of the opponent’s team for the upcoming game [1,2]. Understanding of tactical elements through collective behavior assessment is essential to improve performance, supporting the training process, and preparation for the match [3]. It allows to detect dynamics of the game and quantify its effectiveness, and players’ performance evaluation becomes one of the main aims for coaches [1,4,5]. Players dynamics are determined by specific offensive aims such as creating free space to pass and shoot, enhancing effective scoring options, and minimizing defensive pressure [6]

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Conclusion