Prediction of municipal solid waste treatment and disposal in high cold and high altitude area based on system dynamics: a case study of Lhasa

Abstract

At present, the high cold and high altitude areas of China continue to face challenges in achieving high rates of resource utilization for the municipal solid waste (MSW). In this paper, for the first time, a prediction method based on system dynamics (SD) for the treatment and disposal of municipal solid waste in high cold and high altitude areas is proposed and applied to Lhasa City. The model simulate and predict the proportion of treatment methods (including landfill, incineration, kitchen waste disposal, recycling) and the rate of resource utilization (other disposal methods except landfill) of municipal solid waste under Natural Tendency and regulation schemes (Strengthened Municipal Solid Waste Classification Scheme and Municipal Solid Waste Classification and Treatment Scheme). The results show that strengthening municipal solid waste classification and treatment can significantly enhance the resource utilization rate of municipal solid waste in Lhasa, with an expected rate of 100% by 2026. This outcome has the potential to promote sustainable and healthy development of society, economy and environment of a city.