Abstract
Taking a glance at the pandemic, the adjusted closing stock price trend of Moderna company as an excellent sample is worth studying whether the statistical method of prediction can be used in an unnormal case. This paper examines whether the ARIMA model forecasting tool analyzes Moderna's adjusted closing stock price trend between the seventh of December twenty eighteen to the first of November twenty-two. The historical data of the closed stock price of Moderna Inc was collected from Yahoo Finance. Incorporating evidence from academic papers and the processing of computing the differences, judgement of stationary data and parameter selection, this study illustrates that the ARIMA model is a useful statistical tool to predict the stock trend. It argues for the limitations of using the ARIMA model and offers future outlooks. Ultimately, ARIMA [4, 1, 2] offers an appropriate model for summarizing the forecasting of the adjusted closing stock trend of Moderna Inc under the limited data in this case.
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