Prediction of minesite-drainage chemistry through closure using operational monitoring data

Abstract

Post-mining drainage chemistry depends strongly on geochemical and hydrologic processes that occur during the operational years. Where routine operational monitoring data are abundant, the dominant processes can often be evaluated with no additional, special studies. Thus, post-mining drainage chemistry can be predicted with confidence based on the operational data. This is referred to here as ‘empirical drainage-chemistry modelling’ (EDCM). This paper presents examples of EDCM using routine monitoring databases from several minesites, each containing thousands of analyses and spanning up to 30 years of mine operation and closure. Simple statistical interpretations in the EDCM can reveal annual cycles and trends that aqueous concentrations display during operation and into closure. A new compilation of 12 EDCM equations for copper versus pH is presented to illustrate similar trends with pH among the sites. However, this compilation also shows that average-annual copper concentrations at a particular pH can vary by three orders of magnitude, reflecting site-specific factors. Also, a new case study comparing actual closure concentrations to those predicted with EDCM in 1991 demonstrates that predictive accuracy is within a factor of two.