Prediction of mental health disorder onset and impact on emergency visits following a cancer diagnosis.

Abstract

2041 Background: Cancer patients are at increased risk of mental and emotional distress. The aim of this study is to investigate risk factors and timing of mental health disorder (MHD) onset following a cancer diagnosis, and evaluate its impact on emergency visits. Methods: All patients with a new onset diagnosis of malignancy ( ICD-10 codes C00-C97, with conversion of ICD-9 codes) were identified from an institutional de-identified electronic health data warehouse. Demographic data, Charlson comorbidity index excluding cancer, mortality, and time to onset of a new MHD diagnosis ( ICD-10 codes F00-F99) and emergency visits were extracted and used to calculate rates and Cox-model hazard ratios. A predictive logistic model of MHD was tested on an internal hold-out sample (25%). Results: A total of 110,306 patients with 338,208 person-years of follow up were identified with a new diagnosis of cancer from February 1980 to July 2019, of which 95,474 (86.5%) had no prior diagnosis of MHD. Actuarial rates of new MHD among previously MHD-free patients were 8.1% at 6 months, and 14.1% and 20.8% at 2 and 5 years. Median time to onset of MHD was fastest among head and neck cancer (57 days, HR 2.32 [2.1-2.6]), urinary organ cancer (94 days, HR 2.21 [2.0-2.4]), and lung and thoracic cancers (99 days, HR 2.47 [2.2-2.7]), compared to skin neoplasms (987 days, HR 1.0). Median time to onset was less than one year for all malignancies except for skin neoplasms and male genital cancers (840 days). Male sex, older age, Charlson score, divorce or legal separation, self-identification of a gender-neutral partner, African American or American Indian race, Hispanic ethnicity, current or former smoking status, and self-identification as Christian were associated with higher risk of MHD onset, while married status and native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander race were protective. A logistic model predicted new MHD with an AUROC of 0.72. Onset of new MHD was associated with greater rates of emergency visit (HR 1.92 [1.8-2.0], adjusted for cancer type and Charlson score), and patients with new MHD who experienced an emergency visit had a mean of 3.75+/-0.03 (SEM) total emergency visits versus 2.65+/-0.02 (p < 0.0001). Finally, onset of new MHD was associated with greater mortality even after adjusting for age, Charlson score and cancer type (HR 1.29, [1.23-1.35]). Conclusions: Onset of new mental health diagnosis after a cancer diagnosis was correlated with greater rates of emergency visits and mortality. Cancer patients with risk factors identified here may benefit from increased social and mental health support.