Prediction of Measles Epidemic Trend in China

Abstract

Measles is an acute respiratory disease with high mortality and strong infectivity. Based on the national measles report from 1950 to 2014, this paper established a measles incidence prediction model to provide reference for measles prevention and control decision-making. We selected the incidence data from 1996 to 2014 as the training sample, while data of 2015 as the test sample. A forecasting model of annual measles incidence in China was established by time series analysis, and the incidence of measles in 2016-2018 in China was forecasted. Finally, the changes of measles incidence over time and its distribution in different regions were discussed. It was found that the incidence of measles was higher in western Region before 2004, while the incidence of measles in eastern and northeastern regions was lower, but the measles epidemic in eastern region began to recover in 2005, and the reasons of regional difference were excavated. The result showed that the ARIMA (1,2,1) model was feasible and effective in predicting the incidence rate of measles.