PREDICTION OF MAJOR TRENDS OF TRANSPORTATION DEVELOPMENT

Mindaugas Mazūra

doi:10.3846/16483480.2002.10414012

Abstract

The importance of forecasting the economic characteristics of transportation (i.e. the amount of freight and passengers carried, the turnover rate of freight and passengers, etc. in transportation as a whole and in particular areas using various transport facilities) is demonstrated. Methods for predicting the development of transportation based on multidimensional regression and correlation analysis and realizing mathematical models for finding linear and non-linear multidimensional regression equations as well as a mathematical model for choosing linear and non-linear regression equations, more accurately approximating the empirical data, are presented. The techniques aimed to obtain and apply the linear correlation coefficient and correlative relationship in determining the forecast accuracy is also given. The efficiency of methods, determining the linear correlation coefficient and correlative relationship, used in achieving higher accuracy of forecasts is shown.

Highlights

National transportation development program, compiled in 1993 and approved by the Lithuanian government in 1994 embraced the period up to 2010. It played an important role in the reconstruction and development of Lithuanian transportation system
A number of objective factors exist conditioning the necessity to make corrections in the national program oftransportation development. It is the policy pursued by our country to integrate into the European Community (EC) as well as new trends oftransportation development both in Europe and other countries
Suppose that the value y1 of an economic index considered corresponds to a set of particular characteristics (x1, zl' ..., t1) of the variables x, z, ... , t, while the value y2 corresponds to - th set

Summary

Introduction

National transportation development program, compiled in 1993 and approved by the Lithuanian government in 1994 embraced the period up to 2010. It played an important role in the reconstruction and development of Lithuanian transportation system. A number of objective factors exist conditioning the necessity to make corrections in the national program oftransportation development. It is the policy pursued by our country to integrate into the European Community (EC) as well as new trends oftransportation development both in Europe and other countries (i.e. multimodal transport development, increasing requirements raised to transport for environment protection, the growth of transportation services market, etc.)

Methods

Conclusion