Abstract
A reasonable prediction of low flow years in a region in the future so as to make deployment in advance is related to the stability of the region. This paper established conventional GM (1,1) model and improved GM (1,1) model based on grey system theory to predict low flow years in the upstream of Zhang River which has gray characteristics so as to avoid risks, improve spatial and temporal allocation of water resources and promote sustainable development of the basin. The research shows that improved GM (1,1) model which can improve the smoothness of the original data series provides a more accurate prediction than conventional GM (1,1) model by using the example of Zhuozhang River tributary in the Upstream of Zhang River.
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