Abstract
Since the first identified case of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China, the disease has developed into a pandemic, imposing a major challenge for health authorities and hospitals worldwide. Mathematical transmission models can help hospitals to anticipate and prepare for an upcoming wave of patients by forecasting the time and severity of infections. Taking the city of Heidelberg as an example, we predict the ongoing spread of the disease for the next months including hospital and ventilator capacity and consider the possible impact of currently imposed countermeasures.
Highlights
Since the first appearance of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Wuhan, China, in December 2019, the disease has spread worldwide to be classified as a pandemic by the WHO on 11 March 2020
The transmission model and the parameters We model the transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak by an individual level susceptible (S) – exposed (E) – infected (I) – removed (R; SEIR) compartmental model
For we assume that no countermeasures have been set in place and predict the future dynamics of the outbreak for the upcoming period of 6 months
Summary
Since the first appearance of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Wuhan, China, in December 2019, the disease has spread worldwide to be classified as a pandemic by the WHO on 11 March 2020.In Germany the first confirmed COVID-19 case was recorded on 28 January 2020. Since the first appearance of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Wuhan, China, in December 2019, the disease has spread worldwide to be classified as a pandemic by the WHO on 11 March 2020. The exponential increase in new confirmed cases in Germany has reached 16,290 positively tested cases by 20 March 2020, with many more cases presumed undetected due to a possible transmission from minimally symptomatic or asymptomatic persons carrying the virus[2,3]. The spread of COVID-19 in other countries, such as China and Italy, indicate the major challenges German hospitals, especially intensive care facilities, will have to face in the weeks to come. For the elderly and individuals with pre-existing health conditions, there is an increased probability of severe disease requiring hospitalization and critical care treatment, as well as higher mortality rates[4]
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