Prediction of land cover change based on CA-ANN model to assess its local impacts on Bagerhat, southwestern coastal Bangladesh

Abstract

This study aims to assess land use dynamics of Southwestern coastal Bangladesh using multi-temporal Landsat images. Future trend was done by CA-ANN model. Hybrid image classification method and estimation of land surface temperature along with field survey were accomplished. This study revealed that vegetation decreased significantly (11.75%) and converted mostly into wetlands whereas built-up area slightly increased (1.44%) during 2000 to 2016. According to FGD (focused Group Discussion), a major occupational transformation (from agriculture to shrimp cultivation) and internal migration towards nearby Cities are prominent here. Besides, maximum land surface temperature increased by 12.5˚C during this period as a result of land use change. Simulated land use model of 2024 revealed that 2.49% of settlement would diminish especially from southern region if any natural calamity occurs. Finally, a comprehensive land use management plan has been suggested in this study to establish a balanced and diversified use of coastal land.