Prediction of Kidney Allograft Discard Before Procurement: The Kidney Discard Risk Index.

Abstract

There is an 18.9% discard rate among kidney allografts. Here, we aimed to determine predictors of kidney discard and construct an index to identify high-probability discard kidney allografts prior to procurement. A total of 102 246 potential kidney allograft donors from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network database were used in this analysis. The cohort was randomized into 2 groups. The training set included 67% of the cohort and was used to derive a predictive index for discard that comprised 21 factors identified by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis. The validation set included 33% and was used to internally validate the kidney discard risk index. In 77.3% of donors, at least 1 kidney was used for transplant, whereas in 22.7% of donors, both kidneys were discarded. The kidney discard risk index was highly predictive of discard with a C statistic of 0.89 (0.88-0.89). The bottom 10th percentile had a discard rate of 0.73%, whereas the top 10th percentile had a discard rate of 83.65%. The 3 most predictive factors for discard were age, creatinine level, and hepatitis C antibody status. We identified 21 factors predictive of discard prior to donor procurement and used these to develop a kidney discard risk index with a C statistic of 0.89.