Abstract
Child sexual abuse allegations are typically resolved by jury trial. The presence of a number of variables, known before a trial commences, may play a significant part in trial outcomes beyond jurors’ assessment of witness credibility. New Zealand Crown Prosecutors completed survey questionnaires for 137 trials related to charges of sexual offending against children. Nine trial variables were recorded along with other trial data. The hypothesis was confirmed that the presence of any three or more of the nine evidential variables was significantly predictive of conviction on at least one sexual offence per trial. The results were similar for the total sample and the two subgroups of historical cases and the child cases with complainants aged younger than 17 years at the time of trial. The three variables most strongly associated with conviction were similar fact evidence, evidence from a witness to the offending, and positive medical evidence or DNA evidence.
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