Prediction of Japanese Potential Vegetation Distribution in Response to Climatic Change

Abstract

Potential shift of natural vegetation in Japan caused by global climatic change was predicted by the direct transfer function approach. Two types of vegetation distribution model, fuzzy model and multinomial logit model, were applied to explain the relationship between vegetation classification of remaining natural vegetation and climatic conditions. The logit model indicated a more successful result than the fuzzy model. Then, the effects of increase in mean annual temperature were predicted using the logit model. It was indicated that the percentage of grid-cells in all of Japan which showed different predicted vegetation classifications from the present ones are approximately 23% for a 1-degree increase, 44% for a 2-degree increase, and 62% for a 3-degree increase.