Abstract
Italian ryegrass (Lolium multiflorum L.) is a highly competitive weed widely disseminated worldwide that affects both summer and winter crops. The development of predictive emergence models can contribute to optimizing weed management. The aim of this study was to develop and validate an empirical emergence model of Italian ryegrass based on soil thermal time. For model development, cumulative emergence in two locations was obtained, and the model was validated with data collected in an experiment conducted independently. Three commonly used emergence models were compared (Gompertz, Logistic, and Weibull). The relationship between emergence and soil thermal time was described best by the Gompertz model. The Gompertz model predicted Italian ryegrass emergence start at 300 thermal time (TT), reaching 50% emergence at 444 TT, and 90% at 590 TT. Model validation performed well in predicting Italian ryegrass emergence and proved to be efficient at describing its emergence. This is a potential predictive tool for assisting farmers with Italian ryegrass management.
Highlights
IntroductionDormancy is a very important strategy for weeds, as it allows the seeds to germinate only under specific conditions and during specific periods of the year that favour plant development
Italian ryegrass (Lolium multiflorum L.) is a weed that is widely disseminated worldwide (United States Department of Agriculture [USDA], 2019)
The use of mathematical models to predict seedling emergence is one way to determine under which environmental conditions the seed would be most likely to germinate
Summary
Dormancy is a very important strategy for weeds, as it allows the seeds to germinate only under specific conditions and during specific periods of the year that favour plant development. This strategy strengthens the infestation and promotes species perpetuation (Egley, 2017). The use of mathematical models to predict seedling emergence is one way to determine under which environmental conditions the seed would be most likely to germinate. The objective of this study was to develop and validate an empirical emergence model of Italian ryegrass based on the soil thermal time
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