Abstract
BackgroundOne reason for the aggressiveness of the pancreatic cancer is that it is diagnosed late, which often limits both the therapeutic options that are available and patient survival. The long-term survival of pancreatic cancer patients is not possible if the tumor is not resected, even among patients who receive chemotherapy in the earliest stages. The main objective of this study was to create a prediction model for in-hospital mortality after a pancreatectomy in pancreatic cancer patients.MethodsWe performed a retrospective study of all pancreatic resections in pancreatic cancer patients in Spanish public hospitals (2013). Data were obtained from records in the Minimum Basic Data Set. To develop the prediction model, we used a boosting method.ResultsThe in-hospital mortality of pancreatic resections in pancreatic cancer patients was 8.48% in Spain. Our model showed high predictive accuracy, with an AUC of 0.91 and a Brier score of 0.09, which indicated that the probabilities were well calibrated. In addition, a sensitivity analysis of the information available prior to the surgery revealed that our model has high predictive accuracy, with an AUC of 0.802.ConclusionsIn this study, we developed a nation-wide system that is capable of generating accurate and reliable predictions of in-hospital mortality after pancreatic resection in patients with pancreatic cancer. Our model could help surgeons understand the importance of the patients’ characteristics prior to surgery and the health effects that may follow resection.
Highlights
The global mortality associated with cancer has decreased by approximately 10% in recent years, pancreatic cancer is an exception [1]
Our model showed high predictive accuracy, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.91 and a Brier score of 0.09, which indicated that the probabilities were well calibrated
We developed a nation-wide system that is capable of generating accurate and reliable predictions of in-hospital mortality after pancreatic resection in patients with pancreatic cancer
Summary
The global mortality associated with cancer has decreased by approximately 10% in recent years, pancreatic cancer is an exception [1]. This reduction in mortality is attributable to advances in cancer treatment, among other reasons. One of the reasons for the aggressiveness of pancreatic cancer is that it is often diagnosed late [3], which frequently limits the available therapeutic options and patient survival [4]. One reason for the aggressiveness of the pancreatic cancer is that it is diagnosed late, which often limits both the therapeutic options that are available and patient survival. The main objective of this study was to create a prediction model for in-hospital mortality after a pancreatectomy in pancreatic cancer patients
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