Prediction of In-Hospital Falls Using NRS, PACD Score and FallRS: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

Abstract

Harmful in-hospital falls with subsequent injuries often cause longer stays and subsequently higher costs. Early identification of fall risk may help in establishing preventive strategies. To assess the predictive ability of different clinical scores including the Post-acute care discharge (PACD) score and nutritional risk screening score (NRS), and to develop a new fall risk score (FallRS). A retrospective cohort study of medical in-patients of a Swiss tertiary care hospital from January 2016 to March 2022. We tested the ability of the PACD score, NRS and FallRS to predict a fall by using the area under curve (AUC). Adult patients with a length of stay of ≥ 2 days were eligible. We included 19,270 admissions (43% females; median age, 71) of which 528 admissions (2.74%) had at least one fall during the hospital stay. The AUC varied between 0.61 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.55-0.66) for the NRS and 0.69 (95% CI, 0.64-0.75) for the PACD score. The combined FallRS score had a slightly better AUC of 0.70 (95% CI, 0.65-0.75) but was more laborious to compute than the two other scores. At a cutoff of 13 points, the FallRS had a specificity of 77% and a sensitivity of 49% in predicting falls. We found that the scores focusing on different aspects of clinical care predicted the risk of falls with fair accuracy. A reliable score with which to predict falls could help in establishing preventive strategies for reducing in-hospital falls. Whether or not the scores presented have better predictive ability than more specific fall scores do will need to be validated in a prospective study.