Abstract
The main motivation to conduct the study presented in this paper was the fact that due to the development of improved solutions for prediction risk of bleeding and thus a faster and more accurate diagnosis of complications in cirrhotic patients, mortality of cirrhosis patients caused by bleeding of varices fell at the turn in the 21th century. Due to this fact, an additional research in this field is needed. The objective of this paper is to develop one prediction model that determines most important factors for bleeding in liver cirrhosis, which is useful for diagnosis and future treatment of patients. To achieve this goal, authors proposed one ensemble data mining methodology, as the most modern in the field of prediction, for integrating on one new way the two most commonly used techniques in prediction, classification with precede attribute number reduction and multiple logistic regression for calibration. Method was evaluated in the study, which analyzed the occurrence of variceal bleeding for 96 patients from the Clinical Center of Nis, Serbia, using 29 data from clinical to the color Doppler. Obtained results showed that proposed method with such big number and different types of data demonstrates better characteristics than individual technique integrated into it.
Highlights
Determination of relevant predictors in many fields of human life is important research challenge, including medicine
We find few papers that deals with machine learning approaches, which studied general complications in liver cirrhosis disease as, e.g., in [32,33], on prediction of esophageal varices [34,35,36,37,38], and we found different forms of their integration but we did not find integration that we propose in this paper
Big number of 29 considered factors in which 5 different type of parameters are used, because of the high mortality rate due to bleeding of varices, it is necessary to have precise risk assessment of bleeding for timely implementation of therapeutic interventions and to assess precise prognosis and survival rate of patients with cirrhosis, which is important for appropriate therapy of patients and good patient prioritization on the waiting list for liver transplantation
Summary
Determination of relevant predictors in many fields of human life is important research challenge, including medicine. Research described in this paper is motivated from the fact that from one side, the liver disease causes about 3.5% of all deaths, which is a big number from approximately two million deaths per year worldwide, and that bleeding of varices is most common complication for successful. Mathematics 2020, 8, 1887 treatment of liver cirrhosis [1]. The best way to determine esophageal varices is through gastrointestinal endoscopy. Good prediction indirectly reduces mortality of cirrhosis patients caused by bleeding of varices, so that further researches in this area impose itself as a serious challenge [3]
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