Abstract
Brucellosis occurs periodically and causes great economic and health burdens. Brucellosis prediction plays an important role in its prevention and treatment. This paper establishes relationships between human brucellosis (HB) and land surface temperature (LST), and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). A seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous variables (SARIMAX) model is constructed to predict trends in brucellosis rates. The fitted results (Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) = 807.58, Schwarz Bayes Criterion (SBC) = 819.28) showed obvious periodicity and a rate of increase of 138.68% from January 2011 to May 2016. We found a significant effect between HB and NDVI. At the same time, the prediction part showed that the highest monthly incidence per year has a decreasing trend after 2015. This may be because of the brucellosis prevention and control measures taken by the Chinese Government. The proposed model allows the early detection of brucellosis outbreaks, allowing more effective prevention and control.
Highlights
Brucellosis is a common zoonosis afflicting humans and animals and causes heavy economic and health burdens around the world [1,2,3]
A total of 71 observed values of brucellosis data were obtained from January 2011 to November 2016, among which the first 65 were used as training data for the establishment of an autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous variables (ARIMAX) model, and the last six values were used for comparison to test the predictive effect of the model
Brucellosis rates have stayed at high levels, and the disease is involved in almost all provinces of China
Summary
Brucellosis is a common zoonosis afflicting humans and animals and causes heavy economic and health burdens around the world [1,2,3]. There are four types of brucellosis [4,5] affecting sheep, cows, pigs, and dogs, with transmission to humans mainly occurring through close contact with infected animals and their wastes, or by eating unsterilized animal products such as fresh milk [4,6,7,8]. Brucellosis often causes a series of symptoms in infected people [9,10], and it leads to animal production and abortion [11,12,13,14].
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