Prediction of Hospital Readmission Using the CORE and CORE+ Scores in Persons With COPD.

Abstract

Identifying persons with COPD at high risk for hospital readmission provides opportunities for efficient and appropriate care to lower readmission risk. This study examined 30-d and 60-d hospital readmission prediction of the COPD-readmission (CORE) score and a newly developed CORE+ score. The relationship between CORE and CORE+ scores and ICU admission, endotracheal intubation, and in-hospital noninvasive ventilation (NIV) use was explored. A retrospective cohort study evaluated participants with spirometry-confirmed COPD from 2 Midwestern academic hospitals. The CORE score variables included eosinophil blood count, FEV1/FVC (<0.70) and FEV1 (≤40% of predicted), triple inhaler therapy, previous hospitalization, and presence of neuromuscular disease. Out-of-hospital NIV use and Charlson comorbidity index were added to compose the CORE+ score. Researchers assessed associations between variables and outcomes with chi-square test or Fisher exact test, compared results of CORE and CORE+ scores with Wilcoxon signed-rank test, assessed each score's 30-d and 60-d readmission predictive power with multiple logistic regression, and evaluated predictive accuracy with AUC of receiver operating characteristic using alpha < 0.05. Of 391 participants, the study found a 22% 30-d, all-cause readmission rate and a 16% 60-d, all-cause readmission rate. CORE+ score had better predictive accuracy than the CORE score for 30-d readmission (area under the curve 0.81 [95% CI 0.76-0.86]; AUC 0.73 [95% CI 0.66-0.79], P < .001) and 60-d readmission (AUC 0.77 [95% CI 0.71-0.83]; AUC 0.75 [95% CI 0.69-0.81], P < .001). Participants who used in-hospital NIV had higher median CORE+ scores (P = < .001). CORE and CORE+ scores demonstrated good to very good predictive accuracy for 30-d and 60-d readmission, respectively. Moreover, this study demonstrated a linear relationship between in-hospital NIV use and CORE+ score.