Prediction of high coronary artery calcium (CAC) scores from aortic arch calcification: An efficient tool for selection of non-optimal candidates for coronary CTA?

Abstract

PurposeOverutilization of healthcare resources is causing a high socioeconomic burden. Patients with high coronary artery calcium (CAC) scores > 1000AU are not optimal candidates for coronary CTA and better suited for other diagnostic strategies. Therefore, our objective was to evaluate whether a 4-scale aortic arch calcification severity (AoArCa) score from CT and X-Ray predicts high-CAC scores. MethodsPatients referred to coronary/aortic CT-Angiography were enrolled. The severity of aortic arch calcification (AoArCa) was scored as grade: 0 = absent, 1 = minimal (<25 % of circumference), 2 = mild (25–50 %), 3 = moderate (50–75 %) and 4 = severe (75–100 %) on both thoracic CT and X-ray. ResultsIn 130 patients, the absence of AoArCa by CT was highly accurate to rule out CAC > 1000AU (sens. 100 %). No or minimal AoArCa had a high NPV of 95.6 % to rule out CAC > 1000 and grade 0,1 + 2 a NPV of 86.96 %.The AUC of AoArCa by CT for predicting high CAC > 1000 was c = 0.84 (p < 0.001; 95 %CI: 0.771––0.91). For moderate-to-severe AoArCa, accuracy was c = 0.792 (p < 0.001).The intermodality agreement between CT and X-Ray based AoArCa Scores was good (r = 0.824, p < 0.001); ICC = 0.902. For X-ray, AUC was c = 0.715 to predict CAC > 1000 (p < 0.001).In regression models, only moderate-or-severe AoArCa, but not the other CVRF predicted CAC > 1000 (p < 0.001), and there was an association of the number of CVRF. ConclusionsPatients with moderate-to-severe aortic arch calcification have a high probability of CAC > 1000AU, but not those with no, minimal and mild. The absence of AoArCa rules out CAC > 1000AU. AoArCa severity may serve as valuable tool for selecting the diagnostic strategy.