Prediction of Global Solar Radiation across the Region of Northern Sudan

Abstract

Available data for solar resources indicates that northern Sudan has solar potentials among the highest in world. However, in this vast area (about 471×103 km2) only two stations, at Hudeiba and Dongola, have records for global solar radiation. Four other stations (at Atbara, Karima, Abu-Hamed and Wadi-Halfa) in this region have records for sunshine duration. In this study, recorded data at Hudeiba and Dongola stations have been used to develop 15 models for estimation of monthly average daily global solar radiation on a horizontal surface in northern Sudan. The developed models have been extensively evaluated by using 14 statistical indicators. All developed models revealed good performance (percentage errors within ±4.5%). Then, the most accurate regional model (Model M3) has been used to predict the global solar radiation at Atbara, Karima, Abu-Hamed and Wadi-Halfa stations. Results showed that the whole region receives abundant solar energy throughout the year. The yearly average of daily global solar radiation over the entire region is 23.16 MJ/m2. Furthermore, the developed models can be used to predict global radiation at adjacent places that lack such data.