Prediction of general aviation pilots in China based on supply and demand

Abstract

This paper selects the data of civil aviation pilot licenses, flight instructors and general aviation pilot processed by HP Filtering Technology to construct the VAR equation and predict the supply of general aviation pilot in China in the next three years. Compared with the demand predicted by linear regression equation, it is found that in the next three years, the number gap of pilots in China will reach 879, 856 and 1190 respectively. Finally, this paper analyzes the results combined with the reality, and according to the VAR model, gives reasonable suggestions from the two aspects of strengthening the master's qualifications and encouraging civil aviation or military pilots to change jobs.