Prediction of Food Factory Energy Consumption Using MLP and SVR Algorithms

Abstract

The industrial sector accounts for a significant proportion of total energy consumption. Factory Energy Management Systems (FEMSs) can be a measure to reduce energy consumption in the industrial sector. Therefore, machine learning (ML)-based electricity and liquefied natural gas (LNG) consumption prediction models were developed using data from a food factory. By applying these models to FEMSs, energy consumption can be reduced in the industrial sector. In this study, the multilayer perceptron (MLP) algorithm was used for the artificial neural network (ANN), while linear, radial basis function networks and polynomial kernels were used for support vector regression (SVR). Variables were selected through correlation analysis with electricity and LNG consumption data. The coefficient of variation of root mean square error (CvRMSE) and coefficient of determination (R2) were examined to verify the prediction performance of the implemented models and validated using the criteria of the American Society of Heating, Refrigerating, and Air-Conditioning Engineers Guideline 14. The MLP model exhibited the highest prediction accuracy for electricity consumption (CvRMSE: 17.35% and R2: 0.84) and LNG consumption (CvRMSE: 12.52% and R2: 0.88). Our findings demonstrate it is possible to attain accurate predictions of electricity and LNG consumption in food factories using relatively simple data.