Prediction of flow stress of Ta–W alloys using machine learning

Abstract

Abstract The primary aim of this article was to predict the flow stress of Ta–W alloys using the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) machine learning model and to explain the outcome using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). The article details the effect of temperature, strain rate, and alloying content on the deformation behavior. Though grain size, dislocation density, texture and impurities are also important factors affecting the deformation behavior, these have not been considered in this work. Data and constitutive models from the literature were used to find and compare the predictiveness of the flow stress in Ta–W alloys. XGBoost predicted flow stress with a root mean square error of 12 MPa during training and 40 MPa during testing, while constitutive models such as Johnson–Cook (JC), Zerilli–Armstrong (ZA) and mechanical threshold stress (MTS) models showed a root mean square error of 208, 131 and 149 MPa respectively. The linear correlation between the predicted and experimental flow stress at 10% strain was calculated using the Pearson correlation coefficient and found to be 0.64, 0.93, and 0.70 for JC, ZA and MTS models respectively, while XGBoost showed 0.99 during training and 0.98 during testing. The optimized XGBoost model was validated using five-fold and leave-one-group-out cross-validations. The flow stress at 10% strain was predicted using XGBoost at various temperatures, strain rates, and alloying content. The flow stress was low at temperatures above 1000 K and strain rates below 10−2 s−1. From SHAP analysis, it was found that the base flow stress value (at which the SHAP value is zero) was 477 MPa. For temperatures less than 275 K, strain rates greater than 1 s−1, and alloying content greater than 2.5 wt.% W, the flow stress showed an increase from its base value.