Prediction of Floor Failure Depth in Coal Mines: A Case Study of Xutuan Mine, China

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Accurately predicting the failure depth of coal seam floors is crucial for preventing water damage, ensuring the safe and efficient mining of coal seams, and protecting the ecological environment of mining areas. In order to improve the prediction accuracy of the coal seam floor failure depth, an improved support vector regression (SVR) model is proposed to predict the floor failure depth by taking the 3234 working face in Xutuan Mine as an example. This improved model incorporates principal component analysis (PCA) and slime mould algorithm (SMA) optimization techniques. First, based on the measured data of seam floor failure depth in several mining areas, a prediction index system of floor failure depth was constructed. Subsequently, the PCA method was used to reduce the dimension of the measured data of the coal seam floor failure depth, and the input structure of the SVR model was optimized. Then, the SMA was used to optimize the key parameters, namely the penalty factor (C) and kernel function parameter (g), in the SVR model, achieving automatic parameter selection and obtaining the optimal parameter combination. This process led to the establishment of a coal seam floor failure depth prediction model based on PCA-SMA-SVR. The predictive performance of the PCA-SMA-SVR model, SMA-SVR model, and SVR model was quantitatively evaluated and compared using four quantitative indicators, and the results showed that the PCA-SMA-SVR model had the smallest MAE, RMSE, MRE, and TIC values, which were 1.0470 m, 1.2928 m, 0.0628, and 0.0374, respectively. Finally, the PCA-SMA-SVR model was used to predict that the floor failure depth of the 3234 working face in Xutun Mine was 17.09 m, and the predicted result was compared and analyzed with the results of four commonly used empirical formulas (16.03–21.74 m). The results show that the model is close to the results of four commonly used empirical formulas, indicating that the model has high predictive performance and good practicality. This study is of great significance for the safety, green mining, and ecological environment protection of coal mines.