Prediction of flood areas using the logistic regression method (case study of the provinces Banten, DKI Jakarta, and West Java)

Abstract

Disasters that occur in Indonesia continue to increase from year to year. The National Disaster Management Agency (BNPB) noted that throughout 2017 there had been 2,862 disasters. Of these, almost 99 percent are hydrometeorological disasters, namely disasters that are affected by weather and surface flow. The details of the disaster include floods (979), tornadoes (886), landslides (848), forest and land fires (96), drought (19), earthquakes (20), tidal waves and abrasions (11), dam volcanic eruptions (3). The western part of Java Island includes three provinces namely West Java Province, DKI Jakarta Province, and Banten Province. Of the three provinces, they are no stranger to hearing floods, especially in the capital city of Jakarta and West Java. Flood problems until now have not been resolved completely even the problem of floods is the tendency to increase both in terms of intensity, frequency, and distribution due to climate change. Based on the above conditions, it is necessary to do a study that can provide information about the main causal factors and predict areas that are likely to experience floods. In achieving these objectives, this study uses a mathematical model of logistic regression analysis and application of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) conducted based on the variables that cause flooding, namely rainfall, topography, slope, flow accumulation, land use, and distance to the nearest river. The modelling results obtained an accuracy rate for predicting flood disasters in the study area using logistic regression which was between 85.05% - 94.39%.