Prediction of Female Breast Cancer Incidence among the Aging Society in Kanagawa, Japan

Abstract

Owing to the increasing number of elderly “baby boomers” in Japan, the number of cancer patients is also expected to increase. Approximately 2 million baby boomers from nearby local areas are residing in metropolitan areas; hence, the geographical distribution of cancer patients will probably markedly change. We assessed the expected number of breast cancer (BC) patients in different regions (urban, outer city, town, rural) using estimates of the nation’s population and Kanagawa Cancer Registry data. To estimate future BC incidence for each region, we multiplied the 2010 rate by the predicted female population for each region according to age group. The incidence cases of BC in those aged ≥65 years is expected to increase in all areas; in particular, compared to rates in 2010, the BC incidence in urban areas was predicted to increase by 82.6% in 2035 and 102.2% in 2040. Although the incidence in all BC cases in urban areas showed an increasing trend, until peaking in 2040 (increasing 31.2% from 2010), the number of BC patients would continue to decrease in other areas. The number of BC patients per capita BC specialist was 64.3 patients in 2010; this value would increase from 59.3 in 2010 to 77.7 in 2040 in urban areas, but would decrease in other areas. Our findings suggest that the number of elderly BC patients is expected to increase rapidly in urban areas and that the demand for BC treatment would increase in the elderly population in urban areas.