Abstract
The paper focuses on the development of a general method for extreme response estimation of dynamical systems subjected to random excitations. One of the most important elements in structural safety is an assessment of the exceedance or failure probability. The frequently used Poisson assumption tends to overestimate the exceedance level if the response spectrum has narrow-banded features since the so-called clustering effects occur. The latter inaccuracy may be corrected by using an alternative approach studied in this paper, which enables accurate prediction of extremes irrespective of clustering effects.
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