Prediction of external corrosion rate in Oil and Gas platforms using ensemble learning

Abstract

Goal: This study aims to use artificial intelligence, specifically a random forest model, to predict the annual corrosion rate on FPSO offshore platforms in the oil and gas industry. Corrosion is a significant cause of equipment failure, leading to costly replacements. The random forest model, a machine learning technique, was developed using climatic and other relevant data to forecast corrosion trends based on selected variables. Design/methodology/approach: The methodology involved four steps: identifying influential factors affecting corrosion, selecting factors based on reliability and accessibility of measurements, applying the machine learning model to predict annual corrosion progression, and comparing the random forest model with other ML models. Results - The results showed that the random forest regression model successfully predicted corrosion rates, indicating an average yearly increase of 2.43% on the analyzed platforms. The main factors influencing this increase were wind speed, percentage of measured corrosion, and platform operating time. Regions with higher incidence of these factors are likely to experience higher corrosion rates, necessitating more frequent maintenance. Limitations of the investigation - The research sample consisted exclusively of 4 platforms located in the offshore region of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Thus, the results obtained must be interpreted as representative of these platforms and respective climate conditions. Practical implications – The use of data science tools to improve corrosion management allows managers to have knowledge of which areas has a greater or lesser tendency to corrode, helping to prioritize maintenance activities over time. Originality/value - This study aims to fill gaps regarding the use of random forest techniques for regression focused on predicting the rate of increase in corrosion. It offers a novel approach to assist decision-making in maintenance planning, providing insights into influential corrosion factors and facilitating more effective painting plans to preserve industrial unit integrity.