Prediction of electricity generation from res by machine learning methods

Abstract

RELEVANCE. Today, the degree of integration of renewable energy sources into the energy system is an indicator of the technological and industrial development of the state. Renewable energy is a driver for the development of the economy, science and education. In Russia, the largest technical potential from renewable energy sources in the Sun (in million tons of standard fuel) is 2.3 * 103, the second place is occupied by wind energy - 2 * 103. However, the use of solar energy is associated with great difficulties in predicting the generation of electricity due to its dependence on meteorological conditions, and there is an acute issue of forecasting the generation. In this article, the authors propose a solution to the urgent problem of predicting energy generation from solar power plants using machine learning systems. TARGET. The purpose of this work is to study the performance of modern artificial intelligence methods to create a platform for predicting the power generated from a solar station to an existing network. Develop the architecture of the information and communication system of the distribution network and the model for predicting the photovoltaic power of the power plant based on machine learning methods. METHODS. One approach to solving this problem is to use machine learning algorithms. Such algorithms, with a correctly chosen training model, are capable of predicting the volume of electricity generation a day ahead with a high accuracy of up to 95%. RESULTS. The values of real generation and predicted generation were compared by five machine learning algorithms, such as neural networks, linear regression, decision tree, random forest, adaptive boosting. The random forest algorithm has the smallest mean square error on the test data. The problem of optimization of the radial topology of the network, which minimizes the total loss of active power, is solved. CONCLUSION. An analysis of the construction of a working machine learning model showed that in order to build an optimal model, only the history of the power generation of this plant, compared with the calculated and measured weather data, is needed. The stability of the model was tested by applying the cross-validation method under various training and testing conditions. The results obtained showed that the model works reliably, since the root-mean-square error of the most accurate model is in the region of 600 kWh (4%).