Prediction of efficacy for conversion from adjunctive therapy to monotherapy with eslicarbazepine acetate 800 mg once daily for partial-onset epilepsy.

Abstract

PurposeEslicarbazepine acetate (ESL) is a once-daily (QD) oral antiepileptic drug (AED) indicated for partial-onset seizures (POS). Clinical studies of gradual conversion to ESL 1,200 and 1,600 mg QD monotherapies were previously conducted in patients with POS who were not well-controlled by 1 or 2 AEDs. This report describes modeling and simulation of plasma eslicarbazepine (primary active metabolite of ESL) concentrations and time to monotherapy study exit to predict efficacy for conversion to ESL monotherapy at a lower dose of 800 mg, as an option for patients requiring or not tolerating higher doses since this regimen is effective in adjunctive therapy for POS.Patients and methodsA previously developed population pharmacokinetic model for ESL monotherapy was used to predict minimum plasma eslicarbazepine concentration (Cmin) in 1,500 virtual patients taking 1 (n=1,000) or 2 (n=500) AEDs at baseline, treated with ESL 400 mg QD for 1 week, followed by 800 mg QD for 17 weeks (similar to ESL monotherapy trials where the other AEDs were withdrawn during the first 6 weeks following titration to the randomized ESL dose). Model-predicted Cmin as a time-varying covariate and number of baseline AEDs were used to determine the weekly probability of each patient meeting exit criteria (65.3% threshold) indicative of worsening seizure control in 500 simulated ESL monotherapy trials. A previously developed extended Cox proportional hazards exposure–response model was used to relate time-varying eslicarbazepine exposure to the time to study exit.ResultsFor virtual patients receiving ESL monotherapy (800 mg QD), the 95% upper prediction limit for exit rate at 112 days of 34.9% in patients taking 1 AED at baseline was well below the 65.3% threshold from historical control trials, while the estimate for patients taking 2 AEDs (70.6%) was slightly above the historical control threshold.ConclusionThis model-based assessment supports conversion to ESL 800 mg QD monotherapy for POS in adults taking 1 AED. For patients taking 2 concomitant AEDs, however, prescribers should consider maintenance doses of 1,200 or 1,600 mg ESL QD to reduce the likelihood of seizure worsening if conversion to ESL monotherapy is contemplated.