Prediction of Eastern and Central Pacific ENSO Events and Their Impacts on East Asian Climate by the NCEP Climate Forecast System

Abstract

Abstract The eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the central Pacific (CP) ENSO exert different influences on climate. In this study, the authors analyze the hindcasts of the NCEP Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), and assess the skills of predicting the two types of ENSO and their impacts on East Asian climate. The possible causes of different prediction skills for different types of ENSO are also discussed. CFSv2 captures the spatial patterns of sea surface temperature (SST) related to the two types of ENSO and their different climate impacts several months in advance. The dynamical prediction of the two types of ENSO by the model, whose skill is season dependent, is better than the prediction based on the persistency of observed ENSO-related SST, especially for summer and fall. CFSv2 performs well in predicting EP ENSO and its impacts on the East Asian winter monsoon and on the Southeast Asian monsoon during its decaying summer. However, for both EP ENSO and CP ENSO, the model overestimates the extent of the anomalous anticyclone over the western North Pacific Ocean from the developing autumn to the next spring but underestimates the magnitude of climate anomalies in general. It fails to simulate the SST pattern and climate impact of CP ENSO during its developing summer. The model’s deficiency in predicting CP ENSO may be linked to a warm bias in the eastern Pacific. However, errors in simulating the climate impacts of the two types of ENSO should not be solely ascribed to the bias in SST simulation.