Prediction of East Asian summer precipitation via independent component analysis

Abstract

A new statistical postprocessing method is proposed for seasonal climate prediction. The proposed method is based on a combination of independent component analysis (ICA) and canonical correlation analysis (CCA). Since the classical CCA cannot handle high-dimensional data wherein the number of variables is larger than the number of observations, ICA is pre-performed to reduce the dimension of the data. It is well known that empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis is a popular method for dimension reduction in the climatology community; however, loss of information occurs when the data is not Gaussian distributed. To extend the scope of distribution assumption and improve the prediction ability simultaneously, we propose the ICA-based method. This study focuses on the prediction of future precipitation for the boreal summer (June–July–August; JJA) through 29 years (1979–2007) on East Asia region. Results of the proposed ICA-based method show an improvement in seasonal climate prediction in terms of correlation and root mean square error as compared with those of the GCM simulation and the EOF/CCA method.