Prediction of Earth polar motion in short time interval

Abstract

The accuracy characteristics of mathematical models of the Earth pole motion in a short time intervals have been investigated. The modeling was carried out using two approaches: a numerical-analytical model of the Earth’s rotational motion relative to the center of mass, based on the weighted least squares method and a neural network model for predicting the Earth pole motion. A comparison is made between the standard deviations of short-term forecasts of the Earth pole motion for 1–2 days according to the developed models and the standard deviations of forecasts published by the International Earth Rotation Service in Bulletin A. The models under consideration did not use data smoothing. The model based on neural network approach showed a higher accuracy of short-term forecasting.