Prediction of Drivers’ Speed Behavior on Rural Motorways Based on an Instrumented Vehicle Study

Abstract

Several studies have developed operating speed prediction models. Most of the models are based on spot speed data, collected by radar guns, pavement sensors, and similar mechanisms. Unfortunately, these data collection methods force the users to assume some invalid assumptions in driver behavior modeling: constant operating speed throughout horizontal curves and occurrence of acceleration and deceleration only on tangents. In this study, an instrumented vehicle with GPS continuous speed tracking was used to analyze driver behavior in terms of speed choice and deceleration or acceleration performance and to develop operating speed prediction models. The data used in the study were from a field experiment conducted in Italy on the rural motorway A16 (Naples–Avellino). Models were developed to predict operating speed in curves and tangents, deceleration and acceleration rates to be used in the operating speed profiles, starting and ending points of constant operating speed in a curve, 85th percentile of the deceleration and acceleration rates of individual drivers, and 85th percentile of the individual drivers’ maximum speed reduction in the tangent-to-curve transition. The study results showed that (a) the drivers’ speed was not constant along curves, (b) the individual drivers’ maximum speed reduction was greater than the operating speed difference in the tangent-to-curve transition, and (c) the deceleration and acceleration rates experienced by individual drivers were greater than the deceleration and acceleration rates used to draw operating speed profiles.