Prediction of Dispersal Directions and Ranges of Volcanic Ashes from the Possible Eruption of Mt. Baekdu

Abstract

To predict the influence of volcano eruption on agriculture in South Korea we evaluated the dispersal ranges of the volcanic ashes toward the South Korea based on the possibilities of volcano eruption in Mt. Baekdu. The possibilities of volcano eruption in Mt. Baekdu have been still being intensified by the signals including magmatic unrest of the volcano and the frequency of volcanic earthquakes swarm, the horizontal displacement and vertical uplift around the Mt. Baekdu, the temperature rises of hot springs, high ratios of N2/O2 and 3He/4He in volcanic gases. The dispersal direction and ranges and the predicted amount of volcanic ash can be significantly influenced by Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) and the trend of seasonal wind. The prediction of volcanic ash dispersion by the model showed that the ash cloud extended to Ulleung Island and Japan within 9 hours and 24 hours by the northwestern monsoon wind in winter while the ash cloud extended to northern side by the south-east monsoon wind during June and September. However, the ash cloud may extent to Seoul and southwest coast within 9 hours and 15 hours by northern wind in winter, leading to severe ash deposits over the whole area of South Korea, although the thickness of the ash deposits generally decreases exponentially with increasing distance from a volcano. In case of VEI 7, the ash deposits of Daejeon and Gangneung are 1.31 × 104 g m-2 and 1.80 × 105 g m-2, respectively. In addition, ash particles may compact close together after they fall to the ground, resulting in increase of the bulk density that can alter the soil physical and chemical properties detrimental to agricultural practices and crop growth. Schematic assumption for directions and ranges of the dispersal of volcanic ash due to eruption of Mt, Baekdu (modified from Lee, 2011).