Prediction of developmental toxic effects of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) water-soluble components via machine learning through observation of PM2.5 from diverse urban areas

Abstract

The global health implications of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) underscore the imperative need for research into its toxicity and chemical composition. In this study, zebrafish embryos exposed to the water-soluble components of PM2.5 from two cities (Harbin and Hangzhou) with differences in air quality, underwent microscopic examination to identify primary target organs. The Harbin PM2.5 induced dose-dependent organ malformation in zebrafish, indicating a higher level of toxicity than that of the Hangzhou sample. Harbin PM2.5 led to severe deformities such as pericardial edema and a high mortality rate, while the Hangzhou sample exhibited hepatotoxicity, causing delayed yolk sac absorption. The experimental determination of PM2.5 constituents was followed by the application of four algorithms for predictive toxicological assessment. The random forest algorithm correctly predicted each of the effect classes and showed the best performance, suggesting that zebrafish malformation rates were strongly correlated with water-soluble components of PM2.5. Feature selection identified the water-soluble ions F− and Cl− and metallic elements Al, K, Mn, and Be as potential key components affecting zebrafish development. This study provides new insights into the developmental toxicity of PM2.5 and offers a new approach for predicting and exploring the health effects of PM2.5.